I've just got back from a few weeks away. Did a bug update through the update manager, rebooted, then this. Tried booting in recovery mode and repairing packages (which took a while, looked like it was doing a lot). Tried installing lightdm which gave a different-looking screen with a blue-purple gradient and the same problem; uninstalling lightdm left me with the same screen (must be a kde default or something? No idea how to actually activiate lightdm in that case) and the same problem. Reinstalled kdm a few times, no luck. Reinstalled xinit, no difference. Rebuilt my nvidia drivers, they seem happy (and the splash screens look fine in any case).
ctrl-alt-f1 to a terminal, which *does* let me login:
"startkde" gives:
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$DISPLAY is not set or cannot connect to the X server
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Fatal server error:
Server is already active for display 0
If this server is no longer running, remove /tmp/.X0-lock and start again.
Please consult the X.Org Foundation support
at http://wiki.x.org
for help.
ddxSigGiveUp: Closing log
invalid MIT-MAGIC-COOKIE-1 keyInvalid MIT-MAGIC-COOKIE-1 keyxinit: giving up
xinit: unable to connect to x server: Resource temporarily unavailable
xinit: server error